The best sports to bet on by backtested return are college football, at a peak of 97.8% against the spread, and the NFL, at 90.2%. Both figures come from historical simulations of a betting model, which no sportsbook pays as a standard rate.
Ready to put that ranking to work on leagues you can bet today? After the Solarbet login, our sports menu opens the NFL, NBA, MLB and Europe’s major football leagues in one place.
What Are the Best Sports to Bet On by Backtested Return?
SportsBettingDime’s ranking puts college football first at a peak 97.8% against the spread, followed by the NFL at 90.2%. Football (soccer) sits last at 5% to 8%, and every figure is a ceiling a betting model reached in historical simulation.
- College football (NCAAF): up to 97.8% against the spread and 92.9% on totals
- NFL: up to 90.2% against the spread and 46.2% on totals
- College basketball (NCAAB): up to 36.9% against the spread and 33.9% on totals
- Golf: 20% to 30%
- Horse racing: 16% to 20%
- Tennis: up to 16%, measured on single-season markets
- NBA: 10.8% to 13.9% per bet
- NHL: up to 13.9% on totals and 12.3% on the puck line
- MLB: 7.3% on moneylines and 10.0% on totals
- Football (soccer): 5% to 8%
What a Backtested Return Measures
A backtested return is the best result a data model would have achieved when applied to past games. It does not measure what a typical bettor earns, and the bookmaker’s margin changes the order once real prices come into play.
Which of These Sports Can You Bet On at Solarbet?
Our sports menu covers the NFL, NBA and MLB, all four tennis Grand Slams, horse racing through RCB998 and the major European football leagues. College football, college basketball and the NHL do not appear in our published sports list.
- Listed on Solarbet: NFL, NBA, MLB, tennis Grand Slams, RCB998 horse racing, major European football leagues
- Not in our published list: NCAAF, NCAAB, NHL
Why American Football and College Sports Top the Backtests
College football ranks first because of volume and public money. A busy Saturday regularly carries more than 50 games, with one October Saturday listing 54 games and 108 FBS teams in action and a later season’s Week 4 Saturday carrying 53.
Public money piles onto the best-known programmes, and lopsided splits are common. Marquee teams can draw more than 90% of the handle on one side, as when 94% of the betting handle backed Georgia to cover against Alabama.
NFL moneylines sit close to efficient pricing. A study covering the 2007 to 2016 seasons found some inefficiencies in opening and closing moneylines, but they were unpredictable and varied by season, with bettors tending to overbet favourites.
Bettors chasing NFL value often turn to player props. The league’s tracking system records each player’s location, speed and acceleration 10 times per second, and Next Gen Stats produces between 500 and 1,000 stats per play.
College basketball works on the same principle at a larger scale. Division I fields more than 360 men’s teams, and US books offer betting on thousands of college basketball games each year.
How Golf, Horse Racing and Tennis Reward Specialist Knowledge
Golf (20% to 30%), horse racing (16% to 20%) and tennis (up to 16%) sit in the middle of the backtest ranking. Each one pays off for bettors who study a narrow set of variables closely.
Golf
Golf fields run deep, with 156 players at a regular PGA Tour event and 144 at most majors, so outright winners pay at much longer prices than a match bet in team sports. Head-to-head matchups are the most-bet golf market among sharp bettors, because you only need to pick the better of two players over four rounds, and current form, course history and key stats shape prices across the event.
Horse Racing
Horse racing rewards bettors who track form closely, and exotic bets such as exactas and trifectas pay bigger because the pool takes a larger cut. At one major US track, takeout runs at 17% on win, place and show bets, 20% on exactas and 31% on trifectas.
We run horse racing through RCB998 on a dedicated tab. Our #TuesdayRacing promotion doubles winnings up to $1,288, and terms apply.
Tennis
Tennis strips out team dynamics, and Hawk-Eye line calls cut down officiating disputes. Live betting carries most of the volume, with models tracking serve hold and break rates point by point across all four Grand Slams on our menu.
Why the NBA, Football, Hockey and Baseball Post Lower Peak Returns
The NBA, NHL, MLB and football (soccer) trade lower peak returns per bet for volume. Their backtested figures range from 5% to 8% in football up to 13.9% in the NBA and NHL.
NBA
The 82-game regular season gives NBA betting Singapore far more chances to act on information than a 17-game NFL schedule. NBA teams must resubmit injury reports on game days, except on the second night of a back-to-back, and bettors who act on a late status change before the line moves get the old number.
Football (Soccer)
Football posts the lowest figure on the list because Premier League prices are among the tightest in betting, with margins on the main match market as low as about 2.3% and Asian handicap margins as low as 1.4% at the sharpest books. A study of two Premier League seasons found no substantial or consistent returns from a model’s bets on results, scorelines, winning margins or total goals.
Football draws the most attention in online sports betting Singapore. That attention is a big reason its lines are so hard to beat.
NHL
Hockey carries high variance, and a hot goalie or an empty-net goal can decide a game. Analytical bettors favour 60-minute lines, which exclude overtime, and lean on Corsi and Fenwick because shot attempts give each team a sample of several thousand events per season, against 100 or fewer goals.
MLB
Baseball’s 162-game season makes it a long grind, and enough sharp money shapes the MLB market on any given day to set the true odds. The backtested edge comes from data-supported underdogs, and MLB underdogs have won outright about 42% of the time across the past decade, the highest rate of any major US league.
Solarbet Sports Offers for Every League on Our Menu
- Sports welcome offer: up to 200%, or a 110% match at 8x turnover
- Mixed Group sports rebates: 0.15% to 0.35%, paid daily at 1x wagering
Terms and conditions apply to each offer.
Reading the Ranking Before You Place a Bet
Every return on this list comes from a model applied after the games were played, and bookmakers build a margin into each price that the backtests leave out. Most bettors lose money over a season, so the ranking works best as a guide to where model edges have appeared in past data.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most profitable sport to bet on?
College football posts the highest backtested return, with a peak of 97.8% against the spread in SportsBettingDime’s ranking. That figure is a historical model ceiling, and most bettors lose money over a season.
Does Solarbet offer college football betting?
College football does not appear in our published sports list. The NFL is available on our sports menu, along with the NBA, MLB and the major European football leagues.
Why is football (soccer) the hardest sport to beat?
Football posts the lowest backtested return, at 5% to 8%, because Premier League lines are among the sharpest in betting. The remaining edge sits mostly in live markets and goal totals measured against expected goals data.
What sports bonuses can I claim at Solarbet?
Our sports welcome offer pays up to 200%, or a 110% match at 8x turnover. Mixed Group sports rebates run from 0.15% to 0.35%, paid daily at 1x wagering, and terms apply.